Brend Crude oil trend During Iran-Israel Conflict
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sustained Brent crude prices at $80–90/barrel would have broad and deep effects on the Indian stock market.
🛢️ Current Levels
Brent is trading around $72–74 /barrel as of today, June 17, 2025 theguardian.com+15investing.com+15tradingeconomics.com+15markets.businessinsider.com+5theguardian.com+5theguardian.com+5.
Over the past month, it has risen 12–17%, primarily driven by increased Middle East tensions ft.com+3barchart.com+3en.wikipedia.org+3.
🔍 Recent Trends
Early June dip – Brent hovered in the $66–68 range, subdued by expectations of rising OPEC+ production and cooling demand .
Mid‑June spike (~June 13) – A sudden 7–11% jump fueled by military escalation between Iran and Israel, hitting the high $70s before retreating ft.com+2en.wikipedia.org+2investing.com+2.
Recent pullback (~4%) – News of potential peace talks and Iran seeking de-escalation helped Brent ease to the low $70s .
📈 Outlook & Forecasts
Analysts suggest a $70–80 trading range in the short term if the conflict remains contained en.wikipedia.org+2thetimes.co.uk+2barchart.com+2.
However, if the Strait of Hormuz becomes disrupted, prices could spike to $120+ theguardian.com+7theguardian.com+7barrons.com+7.
On the bearish side, banks like Goldman Sachs expect average Brent around $60 later in 2025, assuming OPEC+ ramps up supply thetimes.co.uk+6reuters.com+6wsj.com+6.
🧭 Key Drivers to Monitor
Middle East geopolitics: Any escalation or de-escalation will directly sway crude prices.
OPEC+ production decisions: Output increases could cap or reverse price gains.
Global demand signals: Slowing economic growth, especially in the U.S. and China, may temper oil demand.
🔔 Market Implications
For India: A sustained oil rally (even in the $75–80 range) would elevate inflation, pressure the INR, and pressure interest rates.
Conversely, if Brent retreats toward $60–65, it could ease inflationary and fiscal pressures.